Wednesday, October 27, 2010

It ain't Over 'til It's Over

RealClearPolitics can be a interesting gold mine for political junkies to analyze election trends. For example, let's look at three prominent Senate races, those in Pennsylvania, California and Delaware.

Clicking on each link, you can see that, according to the RCP averages of recent polls, Toomey is slightly ahead in PA (Go Pat!) and Boxer is slightly ahead in CA (Please CA, take her back and send us Carly!), while in Delaware, Chris Coons is shown with a solid 17.2 % lead over Christine O'Donnell. But take a closer look at when the polls were taken. While the PA and CA averages are from polls taken within the last few days, the Delaware average comes from polls that were taken no later than Oct. 14, nearly two weeks ago. (This is as of 10 PM Wednesday evening. By the time you read this, the averages may be updated with more recent polls that either confirm or change the status of any of these races.)

So, did the major polling organizations stop polling this race in mid-October? (No doubt there are likely internal and local polls still being taken.) Aren't they being a little presumptuous if they've stopped polling because the think this race is over? So what is going on in this Delaware race this week?

I know Christine O'Donnell is facing a steep challenge in this race, but don't count her out. Besides, history shows us how presumed outcomes aren't always confirmed by reality.

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