Wednesday, September 10, 2008

Down-Ballot Shift?

The Dem/Left/Media/Cultural Establishment melt-down over Sarah Palin and the shift in the polls has been coming too fast to have time to cover it all. One interesting trend is that the shift in the polls may not be limited to the presidential race. The Real Clear Politics Generic Congressional Vote polling data shows a narrowing of the generic preference for Democrats for Congress. The average of recent polls is down to a 5.4% margin for Democrats. Only a couple of weeks ago this margin was over 10%. Notice that the most recent poll, taken by USA Today/Gallup on 09/05 - 09/07 shows a 5% Republican advantage. Scroll down through the polling history that shows no other poll with a Republican advantage in the past two years.

Now one should be careful about putting too much stock in any one poll or even a short term trend, but if the trend continues, it will be a dramatic change in the atmosphere surrounding the congressional contests. The cause is apparently the coattails of the 'Palin effect' along with the possibility that the Republican initiative for comprehensive energy development, including drilling for our domestic oil resources, may be starting to break through.

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