Pre-Election Musings and What's at StakeIt's Saturday evening, three days before the 2006 mid-term elections. The pundits and prognosticators are beside themselves talking about a 'wave', 'tsunami', 'momentum', etc. Polls in a number of tight races tend to shift back and forth by a narrow few percentage points.
So what's really going on? Obviously, there is understandable frustration about the difficult situation in Iraq, and differing opinions over what coulda, woulda, shoulda been done differently, and what are the options now. Throw into the mix the usual 'sixth year itch' that plagues whatever party is in power, Old Media bias, apparent polling results, etc. that point to modest to big gains by the Democrats.
On the other hand, Get-Out-The-Vote (GOTV) efforts, independent advocacy group efforts, uncertainties in polling accuracy make that less certain.
Also, other international developments like North Korea's nukes and continuing little domestic bombshells like Mark Foley's one man scandal and John Kerry's clumsy attempt to show off his brilliance can tip the momentum in either direction.
But there are real issues at stake. Speaking for myself, there is too much at stake to vote my mood, vent anger, 'throw the bums out', etc. While issues like immigration, federal spending, etc. have led many to frustration, what are the key issues?
My conclusion is that the paramount issues are those involving life and death. They fall into two broad categories, both pointing my preferences toward the Republicans in general.
Some of these life and death issues fall under the category of national security, terrorism, and war. The war in Iraq is obviously painful and frustrating, and every casualty report grieves all of us. Mistakes in planning are easy to see in hindsight. But the fundamental questions are, where do we go from here and who do we trust to carry out the global struggle against those who want to destroy our civilization. Note, that so far there has been no attack on our homeland since September 2001.
The other category of life and death issues are those social issues such as abortion, euthanasia, and exploitation of human embryos. Over 45 million surgical abortions in this country each mark the violent death of a living human being. The Terri Schiavo case was only the most visible example that getting out of the womb doesn't free the rest of us from the danger of this anti-life mentality. And the hype over embryonic stem cells and the deceptive efforts to write human cloning into public policy represent the most blatant attempt to exploit the hope for progress in mitigating suffering to achieve an agenda of further eroding the respect for the dignity of every human life. The leadership in Washington in recent years has at least nudged public policy more toward a culture of life and begun to balance the ideological mix on the federal courts.
Oh! Any election predictions, you ask? It will be an interesting night.